Hatch Weekly: Netflix who? Disney+ is here

Disney and chill?

Not satisfied with killing it at the box office, Disney (DIS) has its eye on the prize with a new streaming service, Disney+. We grew up on Disney, so we say magic, bring it on! So does the stock market: Disney shares jumped more than 10 percent when they announced the new streaming service.

Asset rich

Expect a bundled offering of Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu - and of course a treasure trove of our favourites from Star Wars, to anything from Pixar, The Lion King, 101 Dalmatians, and every other cartoon worth watching. And they aren’t the only fast follower - WarnerMedia is trailing close behind and plans to offer shows from HBO and NBC, with movies like The Lego Movie, Fast and Furious, and Jurassic World in tow. With all of the streaming options available soon, tell us this: how will we get any work done?

Content is both King and Queen

So, what does this mean for Netflix (NFLX)? Over the next 12 months, we expect to see a significant quantity of their existing content migrate back to their original networks. These studios who want to compete with Netflix already provide the company with close to 20% of its overall content. To replace this content with their own is a rather daunting task. Which is why they’re spending so much of their budget on original content: 85% of new spending going to making new shows for us to binge watch (if anything like Stranger Things, yes please).

Friends or Foe?

Paying $100m to keep Friends for one more year indicates that Netflix understands the level of threat it’s facing. With close to 150 million global subscribers, Disney+ aims to put a dent in that figure when it launches in the US in November, priced at a very reasonable $6.99 a month, undercutting Netflix’s most popular plan of $10.99 a month. Global domination might ensue. Their target is 60 and 90 million global subscribers to make a profit, which they’re anticipating in...2024. Cough. If anyone can afford to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in the short run, it’s probably Big D.

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The $100 billion dollar road to Uber’s IPO

Well, it’s finally here. On April 11th, Uber filed documents to go public, 320 pages to be exact, and in doing so revealed key insights about its future and its competition.

Paranoid much?!

In the documents, Uber made it clear that everyone, and we mean EVERYONE is seen as competition for their 91 million users including Apple, Amazon, and Tesla. Spot on really, but then they also happen to think that they’re competing with restaurants, grocery stores, meal-prep companies, and public transport. Um, what? Yes, Uber is more than just a ride-sharing platform. Uber Eats delivers meals to 15 million customers each month, and you know they’ve recently waded into the bike - and scooter - sharing waters.

Who’s benefiting?

Not the drivers. But SoftBank, the Saudi government (#JamalKhashoggi), and Alphabet will be some of the biggest winners in Uber’s IPO. And where does Uber’s IPO leave Lyft (LYFT)? Who knows. But we do know that Uber beats Lyft by more than $9 billion in revenue and roughly 60 million users. Check out the rest of these stats:

2018 Revenue
Uber: $11.3 billion
Lyft: $2.2 billion

2018 Loss
Uber: $1.85 billion (Adjusted EBITDA loss)
Lyft: $911 million

Users in 2018
Uber: 91 million (including other services like Uber Eats)
Lyft: 30.7 million

Drivers in 2018
Uber: 3.9 million
Lyft: 1.9 million

Rides in 2018
Uber: 5.2 billion (includes scooter and bike rides, Uber Eats deliveries)
Lyft: 619 million

All we know is that 2019 is turning out to be the exciting IPO year we expected it to be!

Swipe right on this

Move over Netflix, and this isn’t about Disney, but Tinder (MTCH). Yes, for the first time Netflix is no longer the top grossing, non-game mobile app. Dating app Tinder, with its 50 million users is now the most popular of them all.

One bad Apple

Netflix’s app had been the world’s top-earning, non-game app since Q4 2016. It is worth noting that in December 2018, Netflix stopped paying “Apple tax”, which means new users can’t sign up and subscribe to its service through the Apple App Store. Do that math: Netflix had earned $853 million in 2018 on the App Store. A 30 percent cut would have been significant.

Dating is on fire

While Netflix is down, Tinder’s subscribers and revenue are on the rise. The addition of 1.2 million subscribers in 2018 led the brand to close the year out with $805 million in revenue. As for Tinder competitor Bumble? Well, the female-empowering dating app is said to be considering a near-future IPO, and have entered the ‘lifestyle brand’ game having launched a physical magazine. Do you remember those!? Bumble now offers a 100-page lifestyle advice-riddled magazine building on their anti-Tinder positioning. There just might be room in the dating market and the financial markets for both of them.

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