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Hatch Weekly: Coal no more?

All gas and wind

You can call it. American coal is dead. As dead as an English scrum packing down against the monstrous Boks. Just blow the whistle now. 

While the US coal industry might have had President Trump’s support, it is simply no match for the market. Eight coal producers have now collapsed into bankruptcy this year alone as output took a 27% dive in the past five years, slumping to a 42-year low. 

There is no grand save the climate campaign behind the elimination of coal. It’s really just simple economics. The stark reality is it is now cheaper to build and run a new power plant on gas than to keep an existing coal plant running. Which is why there is roughly $90 billion of planned investment in new gas-fired plants and a further $30 billion going into pipelines. 

Gas might be the big game in town, but it’s not the only game. There’s plenty of wind in the States and it’s not all coming from DC. Where wind works, it’s a cheaper alternative to gas. Throw in solar, with the advances in energy storage, and the renewables sector’s heartbeat is getting stronger, attracting companies like BP (BP) to enter the market.

Major market transitions always present opportunities and with a suite of energy companies in the Hatch portfolio, this sector is a must-watch. Keep an eye out for those favourable winds.

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Recession? What recession?

Forget Ross and Rachael (showing our age, perhaps). The great “will they, won’t they” question of our time is that of whether the US is headed for a recession. But if you were the gambling type, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan says it’s too soon to start laying down slips on a tanking economy. In his mind, history shows the economy isn’t ready to shrink just yet. 

Greenspan’s key point is that no recession in the past 50 years began at a time when US companies were paying down debt, not running it up. Companies are continuing to make long-term investment decisions despite trade tensions and general global economic uncertainty. 

Greenspan’s optimism got a further shot in the arm with the news the economy added 128,000 jobs last month, which was a solid 40k more than analysts were expecting. 

One of the key takeaways was that jobs in the retail sector were up, reflecting that the average punter is feeling confident enough to keep opening their wallets to the extent retailers are positive about taking on new staff. 

As you might guess, the good news was great for investors, with US shares opening at all-time highs following the report. Happy days.

Will Apple reach your eyes?

Sticking with Jennifer Anniston, she and pal Reece Witherspoon are the immediate winners from the launch of Apple TV. The duo will reportedly pocket $1 million each an episode for a guaranteed two seasons of a show that didn’t even need to shoot a pilot (the TV kind, not a cockpit resident). That is one very happy arranged marriage.

Also on the winner’s block was Roku Inc (ROKU) whose shares took a 10% hike on the news Apple TV would be available through its set-top box platform. Analysts covering Roku are tipping its user base to expand as it benefits from the streaming wars and the surge in smart TVs globally.

Apple (AAPL) itself did not see much movement in its own share price following the TV launch. The market has no doubt about the potential reach available to the tech giant, given its dominance of the smartphone and tablet categories. But what everyone wants to know is, will anyone watch? 

As they say, content is king. With Disney+ set to launch this month at a similar monthly price and Hulu recently in the mix with juggernaut Netflix (NFLX), whether consumers have the appetite to fork out for multiple providers will come down to one single question. Are you worth my time? Jennifer hopes so, though her bank probably doesn’t care.

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